Another Chart Going Against Consensus On The Dollar

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Conventional wisdom in the market right now is that the dollar is only headed in one direction: higher. Many believe that the policies the new administration will ultimately put in place are undoubtedly bullish for the dollar even as weak-dollar comments are coming out of the oval office. In recent posts, we have been pushing against consensus […]

Are Cyclical Stocks Trying to Tell Us Something About the Direction of the Dollar?

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Over the past decade, global cyclical stocks and the dollar have tended to move in inverse directions. Whenever the dollar weakens, like in the first half of 2009 and the second half of 2010, cyclical stocks have tended to outperform the broader market. Cyclical stocks have been outperforming since 7/7/16 and that outperformance really accelerated after […]

Is the European Investor About to Become More Omnivorous?

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With yields in Europe well below 2% for the better part of the last five years, foreign bonds–especially US Treasuries, trading at an increasingly higher spread to German counterparts–offered an appealing alternative. Appetite for USTs is one that remained strong for 50 straight months as yields in Germany fell nearly continuously. In November, however, European […]

Bonds and Equities Are Syncing Back Up Again

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On 11/4/16, the 65-day correlation between between the S&P 500 and US 10-year treasury yields was as negative as it had been at anytime since June 2007. The 65-day rolling correlation was -30% compared to a 73% correlation that had occurred just a few months earlier in June. The negative relationship seems to be short lived […]

Quarterly Update: Knowledge Leaders Strategy

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In our new quarterly update report, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, discusses the investment team’s recent analysis on two topics, including: 1. New portfolio opportunities. Huge innovation in the energy sector – and the US Shale Revolution specifically — has manifested into new portfolio opportunities. The US cost of production of oil has fallen by 50% over […]

Inflation is Finally Surprising to the Upside But it Looks Like it’s All About Oil Prices

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For the first time since 2011-2012, inflation surprises are positive in many parts of the world.  The Citi Inflation Surprise Index is at the highest level since 9/2011 in Asia-Pacific, it’s at the highest level since 10/2011 for the Eurozone, and it’s at the highest level since 5/2012 in the emerging markets. One notable exception is […]