Archive | July, 2015

Is The Fed Now looking At A December Lift Off?


One of the data releases that has gained more attention recently than what it has historically received is the quarterly Employment Cost Index (ECI). With focus moving to not just job growth, but wage growth as well, the ECI index is a data point that Fed watchers are watching to guess what the Fed’s next move is going to be. Unfortunately for […]

Watch Out for Industrial Sentiment in Europe?


Today’s release of business and consumer surveys conducted by the European Commission (EC) portrayed a generally positive picture in the Eurozone as well as the European Union, with rises in both the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI): Consumer confidence, on the other hand, fell for the fourth consecutive month in the […]

IP Investment Carries Overall US Business Investment


Total business investment as a percentage of GDP has declined for three straight quarters. As the chart below shows this is somewhat worrying since declining business investment as a percentage of GDP is associated with economic recessions. However, before recession alarms begin to sound it needs to be stated that just because business investment has fallen it doesn’t necessarily […]

MSCI Europe Relative Strength, By Country


As regular readers know, we use relative strength point-and-figure methodology as an input in our process.  One of the main benefits of the system is the ability to see beyond short-term fluctuations in the price of a stock.  We can apply this process to country indices as well, allowing us to focus on areas with more […]

Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Rise


Current levels of economic policy uncertainty have risen lately, especially in Europe: France and Germany contributed the most to the latest rise in the overall index: Whether the trend upward since 2014 is a passing phenomenon or the beginning of a more sustained spike remains to be seen.  The historical relationship between prolonged periods of uncertainty and the stock […]