Archive | August, 2015

Global Inflation Remains Pretty Much Nonexistent

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Our world inflation proxy, which is simply the average of 33 different CPIs from around the world, dropped back to 1.12% YoY in July. Global inflation has been in a tight range for all of 2015 as the YoY change has remained between 1.12%-1.31%. 10 of the 33 countries we track currently have negative YoY growth […]

Have We Seen the Emotional Low in EM Stocks?

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We’ve been writing for the last several weeks here, here and here that a good buying opportunity for EM stocks would likely avail itself soon, but that we were not quite at the sentiment lows seen at the other good buying places in 2008 and 2011. We don’t know if we’ve seen the ultimate cycle […]

IP Investment Contributed Nicely To Second Quarter GDP

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While overall business investment as a percent of GDP has been on a decline, investment in intangible property products is contributing more to real GDP than it has in almost nine years.  Intangible property products contributed 34 bps to real GDP during the second quarter. This is the largest contribution since 3Q 2006. Real investment in […]

Unveiling the Key to Mutual Fund Outperformance, and it has Nothing to do with Fees!

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It’s become almost common knowledge these days that the key to building a portfolio of outperforming mutual funds or ETFs is to simply pick the lowest cost option available in the categories to which the investor wants exposure. In this article we’ll offer a slightly different take, that the real key to finding outperforming mutual […]

Investors Should Cheer A Higher Federal Funds Rate

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With rocky equity markets and concerns about economic growth in China, there seems to be a growing chorus in the market calling for the Fed to hold off on raising rates in September. In fact, many are now saying (hoping?) that the Fed holds off raising rates until 2016. Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, […]

CBOE Put/Call Ratio Spiked To 2007 Levels

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On Friday, August 21st, the total put to call ratio spiked to 1.69 which was the largest put to call ratio since 2/27/2007. The 25-day moving average remains more subdued at 1.07 and is at levels that were seen in 2013 and 2014. The one-year moving average is at 0.99 which is the highest level  since 2012.