Archive | July, 2016

5 Unique Charts From US 2Q GDP Report

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US GDP in the second quarter underwhelmed (1.2% QoQ AR vs expectations of 2.4% QoQ AR) thanks to the volatile inventory category. We will let others get into the weeds regarding what may happen with future revisions and instead focus on several charts you will (hopefully) not see anywhere else. The structural slowdown of US […]

What are the Implications of a Weaker Yuan?

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As we have been going through a deep dive of our chart library a surprisingly simple theme has emerged: the Chinese yuan has had a tremendous impact on almost all major asset classes around the world. Over the past three years the yuan has declined by approximately 10% against the USD. This devaluation episode has dragged down commodity prices, particularly crude […]

Developed World Economies Are Beating Econ Expectations

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The US Citi economic surprise index has vaulted to the highest level in nearly two years and the US isn’t alone in this trend. The latest reading of 43.10 is the highest reading since September 2014 and is a vast improvement over the consistent negative levels experienced between January 2015-June 2016. For the overall developed world […]

China Slowdown Story has Moved into a New Phase as Government Props up Ailing Private Sector

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The last several days saw the release of the usual slue of monthly and quarterly economic stats out of China, which were mostly met with applause from the financial punditry as headline numbers beat expectations.  A look under the hood, however, reveals quite a different story. The composition of growth in China again markedly deteriorated in […]

If TIPS Yields Go Negative, Gold Rally Likely Continues

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10-year TIPS yield briefly went negative last week and the current yield is just 3 bps. TIPS yields have fallen around 75 basis points since the beginning of the year. This decline in yield has been accompanied by a rally in gold from $1060 to $1342. One of the more persistent relationships in the market place since 2003 has been […]