NYSE Margin Debt rose to All-Time highs


Peaks in NYSE Margin Debt has been a leading indicator in the last large market declines (2000, 2007, 2011). NYSE Margin Debt was looking like it might be topping out in April. However, the latest data for September shows it increased by about $20 billion to new all-time highs.

Credit Impulse From QE Fading


A good proxy for the expansion and/or contraction of the shadow banking market is the change in the amount of commercial paper outstanding.  Successive rounds of QE–represented by the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet–have had a stimulative, but short lasting impact on the expansion of shadow banking credit.

What’s Wrong With This Picture?


The MSCI World index is back to within 2% of an all-time high.  Meanwhile the employment to population ratio in the US is languishing at levels not seen since 1983.  In 1983, the Billboard top song was Every Breath You Take by the Police.

Gold Stocks Lead Gains


With the price of gold up another $23 today, after surging $40 last week, gold stocks are the leaders in the MSCI World index today. Adding fuel to the move is the plunge in the USD today, stepping down by half a point so far this morning.