Peaks in NYSE Margin Debt has been a leading indicator in the last large market declines (2000, 2007, 2011). NYSE Margin Debt was looking like it might be topping out in April. However, the latest data for September shows it increased by about $20 billion to new all-time highs.
US import prices ex-petroleum fell further on a year-over-year basis. This series has now been negative since March. The movements in the USD do not suggest this deflationary pulse from import prices will be abating over the next few months.
A good proxy for the expansion and/or contraction of the shadow banking market is the change in the amount of commercial paper outstanding. Successive rounds of QE–represented by the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet–have had a stimulative, but short lasting impact on the expansion of shadow banking credit.
Our favorite statistic to look at whenever the monthly employment reports rolls around is actually 3 statistics multiplied together. We take Payroll Employment x Average Weekly Hours x Average Hourly Earnings to come up with a ”National Income Proxy”.
10 year treasury yields finished 9bps lower on the day today hitting the lowest level since mid-July while gold, silver, copper and the euro all caught a decent bid. The divergence between S&P 500 futures and the 10 year note is now at the most extreme in a month.
The MSCI World index is back to within 2% of an all-time high. Meanwhile the employment to population ratio in the US is languishing at levels not seen since 1983. In 1983, the Billboard top song was Every Breath You Take by the Police.
With the price of gold up another $23 today, after surging $40 last week, gold stocks are the leaders in the MSCI World index today. Adding fuel to the move is the plunge in the USD today, stepping down by half a point so far this morning.
At the heart of Abenomics is the presumption (or hope?) that a lower yen will stimulate export volume. Indeed September exports denominated in yen were up about 11.5% year over year. But real exports were up just .4%.
Last week with most of the attention being on whether or not the US Government would be able to get a deal done to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government, the factor with the highest R-square performance was Beta.