French Economic Uncertainty at All-Time Highs


The rise in European government bond yields has been widespread since lows in early fall last year, led by Italy and (now) France. As investors turn to the relative safety of bunds, the spread between French and German yields (light blue line below) has risen to multi-year highs. In addition, the economic policy uncertainty index […]

Positive Revisions to Estimates Surge


The percentage of positive revisions to developed market sales and earnings estimates jumped over the last month, with an average of 76% of companies reporting better sales estimates and 70% reporting better earnings estimates. Developed Markets (DM) DM Americas has remained the most steady of the three regions as ~50% of companies have reported positive revisions […]

Another Chart Going Against Consensus On The Dollar

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Conventional wisdom in the market right now is that the dollar is only headed in one direction: higher. Many believe that the policies the new administration will ultimately put in place are undoubtedly bullish for the dollar even as weak-dollar comments are coming out of the oval office. In recent posts, we have been pushing against consensus […]

Cause for Concern? Coincident-Lagging Economic Ratio is at a 41-Year Low

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The Conference Board’s Coincident-Lagging Ratio has done a pretty good job of identifying recessions since 1958. That is, until now. In each of the last eight recessions, the Coincident-Lagging Ratio bottomed near the end of the recession and was declining throughout the recession. It has been a pretty reliable indicator giving only three false signals, excluding […]

Are Cyclical Stocks Trying to Tell Us Something About the Direction of the Dollar?

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Over the past decade, global cyclical stocks and the dollar have tended to move in inverse directions. Whenever the dollar weakens, like in the first half of 2009 and the second half of 2010, cyclical stocks have tended to outperform the broader market. Cyclical stocks have been outperforming since 7/7/16 and that outperformance really accelerated after […]