Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes

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The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy.  The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the collective causes and effects of US monetary policy. We also describe historically […]

Was Today’s Rally the All Clear Signal or More Noise?

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The equity markets no doubt experienced a powerful move today on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks mid-day. Specifically, his comments laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2018. It was a welcome development for an equity market that has failed to find direction all […]

Value Investing Isn’t Dead Yet, Just Wounded

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Value investing, which is often traced back to Ben Graham in the 1940s, is among the most influential trends in finance in recent decades. Value investing is based on the idea that lots of stocks are out of investors’ favor because of myriad of reasons, such as recent losses, management upheaval (think GE), product failures, etc. Investors […]

Machine Learning to the Rescue

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My previous blog post (“Beware! Estimates Dominate Financial Reports,” October 13, 2018) alerted you the hidden secret of accounting: Most balance sheet and income statement items are based on managerial subjective estimates and projections (like depreciation, asset write-offs, bad debts, expected gain on pension assets, etc.). The financial data that many investors are using literally “float on […]

Good For a Bounce in Stocks, But How Much More?

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The selling over recent weeks has been fast and intense, providing investors almost no relief. This type of short-term selling pressure has reached fever pitch levels that is usually indicative of some sort of relief rally, even if the ultimate lows are still ahead of us. This first chart shows the net number of positive […]