The Employment Report is Not All It’s Cracked up to Be

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Today’s “blowout” employment report, while strong in some respects, should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s important to remember that employment is a lagging indicator. Payroll employment often peaks either at the beginning or middle of recessions, so it provides virtually no warning of impending danger. Better indicators of employment strength are the […]

Geopolitics Outlook 2019: Q&A with Peter Zeihan

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As the year ended with global unknowns and market uncertainties weighing on investors’ minds, we sat down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss his outlook for 2019. His top predictions included calls on Brexit, a US-Britain trade deal, China’s exit from world trade, new chaos in Europe including an end of democracy in Germany […]

There is Statistical Merit to this Oversold Condition in Stocks as Buying Opportunity

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The oversold condition in stocks that has developed over the last several weeks is more than trivial. I highlighted on Christmas Eve the baker’s dozen reasons why equity markets could tactically rally from that point, showing extremes in a variety of indicators. Extremes of the nature witnessed are typically indicative of good entry points, and […]

Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity

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The S&P 500 experienced a waterfall decline in December, something rarely seen. Measuring the decline using a 30-day Wilder Relative Strength Index, it is clear the extremes recently experienced. On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 punctured 30% on the RSI, something that has only happened several times in since 1990. Similar extreme readings were seen […]

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus

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We are quite sure many of our readers are eager to turn the calendar and be done with 2018’s turbulent and unforgiving markets. After all, US stocks have gyrated wildly for the entire year, foreign stocks have gotten absolutely no love, and traditional diversifiers like bonds and gold just added to one’s troubles for most […]