Spotlight: Etsy’s Virtual Marketplace Has Created 1.5 Million Jobs

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Internet retailers are a much-watched sub-industry in the stock market for good reason: worldwide retail ecommerce is predicted to generate double-digit growth each year through 2022, reaching total sales of $3 trillion by the end of that year, according to Euromonitor. For those of us who measure innovation, that makes the internet & direct marketing […]

The Bond Market is Not Impressed with the Fed

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On Tuesday of this week we wrote about the four possible scenarios the Fed could adopt in their Wednesday policy decision. In order of most hawkish to most dovish, those scenarios were: Fed does not cut rates and signals that a rate cut may be appropriate later in the year (read the September meeting). Balance […]

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow

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Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield curve has inverted at the important 10Y-3M spread, inflation expectations […]

Risks For the Second Half of 2019 Are Mounting by the Day: Part 2

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Yesterday we wrote about three macro factors that will act to restrain economic growth through the rest of 2019 and into 2020. Those risks are the baked-in fiscal tightening, the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, and growth retarding trade policy. Together, they could restrain growth to levels well below expectations and induce a profits […]