BAA Spreads say the Drop in Yields and the Chinese Yuan is Very Different From 2015-2016

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Arguably the two most significant macroeconomic events taking place in markets currently are the drop in US Treasury yields to near historic lows and the breakdown of Chinese yuan below the “line in the sand” 7.0 level. Oddly enough, a similar thing happened back in the 2015-2016 period. Readers probably remember the manufacturing/earnings recession that […]

German Banks: Cutting Off Nose to Spite Face

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Today Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions. Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation: “Despite all the successes we have made, challenges continue to increase for the industry and for us… This […]

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday

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All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed’s next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed’s next meeting at the end of July, so the stakes are high and expectations have been […]

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve?

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To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches as well as some informative data about the state of […]