The IMF made news yesterday by announcing its latest updates to 2019 GDP growth around the world. It guided global growth down and made an especially large cut to Eurozone growth estimates, bringing them down 30bps since January to 1.3%. They also took their estimates down a touch for the US as well. In the […]
Yesterday’s stocks reacted to a raft of overnight foreign economic data that it perceived positively. In this note, I’ll run down the data and my doubts about that reaction. The hits began with China’s Markit manufacturing PMI jumping to 50.5. While the media seems to focus on the size of the jump, and the fact […]
Investors have been given another slug of wanting housing data this week. First it was building permits which surprised to the downside and today it was pending home sales, which fell 4.9% YoY vs expectations of a 1.8% drop. Both building permits and pending home sales are leading indicators of housing activity as well as […]
To the dismay of many observers, US treasury yields have been dead as a doorknob despite the 20% rally in stocks over the last three months. In fact, the US 10-year yield is on the verge of breaking below the 2.56% level it reached on January 4th when recession concerns were flaring. This obviously begs […]
Last week we were presented with a fairly cold employment report with the number of job gains being lowest in 18 months and one of the lowest readings in the last decade. The problem is not necessarily the one weak employment report – which did come with at least some bright spots including a lower […]
Stocks have been on a tear. Manufacturing has contracted, bringing down GDP and earnings estimates. Was the stock bounce real or just a short covering? Sentiment on stocks has shifted to bullish while sentiment on bonds has moved bearish. In this special video report, CIO Steve Vannelli describes the team’s analysis of the question: is it […]
The big news of the day relates to the continuation of a trend that has been going on since 2013: the widening of the trade deficit. The trade deficit in dollar terms at $-59.8bn in December and $-622bn for the year broke down to a new 10-year low. The trade balance as a percent of […]
In Part 1 of this series we talked about the lagged effect of interest rates and money growth, AKA “financial conditions” broadly speaking, on economic growth. We noted that changes in interest rates tend to impact economic growth with about a 2 year lag and changes in money supply tend to impact growth with about […]
With US stocks up 11% YTD and nearly 19% since the Christmas Eve low, one could surmise that the economic slowdown that occurred in the back half of 2018 both globally and in the United States was a thing of the past, or at least would be over soon. After all, the Fed is no […]
Last week we were selected as a “Hidden Gem” at the Inside ETF conference in Hollywood, Florida. Steven Vannelli gave a 3-minute pitch on our investment strategy. Here’s what he said. Knowledge Leaders Hidden Gems 3-min Pitch “Hidden Gems” are 12 under-the-radar ETF ideas selected by Inside ETFs and presented on the main stage […]